Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia – Betting Analysis

Match Overview: Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia

On May 14, 2025, Deportivo Alaves faces Valencia at 17:00 in a match characterized by tactical discipline and moderate goal scoring, based on the detailed data and predictive analytics. Recent trends point toward low-scoring contests, with both teams typically operating with defensive structure and caution, influencing goal, card, and special market segments. The forecasted outcomes reflect a match where both sides will likely struggle to break through in the first half, and discipline on the pitch may lead to fewer bookings. This analysis unpacks the betting landscape across the main categories to help inform strategic decisions.

1. Goal Markets

• Both Teams Not To Score In 1st Half: 85.00% — A highly probable result, as both Alaves and Valencia generally maintain strong defensive organization early on. This suggests a tight first half with limited attacking risk from either side.
• Both Teams Not To Score In 2nd Half: 76.00% — Defensive approaches are likely to persist, with little expectation of both teams scoring in the latter period.
• Over 0.5 Goals HT: 71.00% — While the likelihood of both sides scoring is low, the data indicates there is still a higher-than-average chance of at least one goal being scored before halftime.
• Under 2.5 Goals: 68.00% — The defensive tendencies are reinforced here; a low total goal count is a strong possibility.
• Over 1.5 Goals: 65.00% — While under 2.5 goals is slightly more probable, crossing the 1.5-goal mark remains likely, hinting at a narrow scoreline (e.g., 1-1 or 2-0).
• Last Goal 73+ Minutes: 53.00% — The probability reflects the competitive balance that might produce a late goal as teams tire or push for a result.
• Avg. Total Goals: 2.27 — Typical matches hover slightly above two goals, supporting the probabilities given above.

Expert Insight: Expect a measured contest with few clear chances and an increased probability of either team breaking the deadlock late in the game.

2. Team-Specific Goal Predictions

• Home Team Not To Score In 1st Half: 71.00%
• Away Team Not To Score In 1st Half: 65.00%
• Home Team Not To Score In 2nd Half: 59.00%
• Away Team To Score In 2nd Half: 53.00% — Slight edge suggesting Valencia may find some success after the break.
• Avg. Goals Scored: 0.85
• Avg. Conceded Goals: 1.41

Expert Insight: Both teams may struggle for attacking efficacy, particularly early. If goals do come, expect a greater likelihood in the closing stages, especially from the away side (Valencia).

3. Card Markets

• Under 5.5 Cards: 68.00% — The match should see discipline from both sides, with refereeing unlikely to escalate to many bookings given the historic 2.23 yellow cards average and low red card frequency (0.12).
• Yellow Cards: 2.23 — Below the league average, suggesting control and fewer fouls.
• Red Cards: 0.12 — Very rare occurrence, not an attractive market for overs.

Expert Insight: This fixture has a strong likelihood of a clean disciplinary record, making unders attractive for card betting segments.

Expert Predictions & Value Bets

• Best Value: Both Teams NOT to Score in the 1st Half, and Under 5.5 Cards
• Late Drama: A goal after the 73rd minute is a plausible scenario if the match remains tight, suiting in-play bettors.
• Low-Scoring Draw or Narrow Away Win: Given Valencia’s slight second-half edge, look for a 0-1 or 1-1 correct score option.