Modena vs Cesena – Match Analysis & Betting Insights

On May 13, 2025, at 18:30, Modena will face Cesena in a fixture that offers interesting dynamics across both teams. With an average of 2.61 total goals per match and a moderate rate of cards (2.44 yellows, 0.06 reds), recent data suggests a balanced encounter rather than an explosively open affair. While both teams have solid attacking and defensive records, the nuanced patterns in scoring times and card trends provide multiple value angles for bettors.

Goals Markets

• Over 1.5 Goals: At 78% probability, the game is highly likely to feature at least two goals. This aligns well with the 2.61 avg. total goals statistic.
• Under 2.5 Goals: With a 53% chance, this market suggests a moderate likelihood for the match not turning into a high-scoring contest.
• Sum of Goals 2 or 3: Also 53%, supporting the expectation of a mid-range scoreline.
• Avg. Goals Scored: 1.25 per match and Avg. Conceded Goals: 1.36 per match imply both teams are neither prolific nor especially weak defensively.

Goal Timing

• Over 0.5 Goals HT: A 78% backing for a first-half goal suggests early action is likely.
• First Goal Between Minute 0-29: There’s a 53% chance for an opening goal in the first half-hour, aligning with trends for quick starts.
• Last Goal Minute 0-72: With a 56% probability, late drama (after the 72nd minute) seems less likely than settling the score earlier.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Markets

• Both Teams To Score (BTTS): 64% suggests we may see goals from both Modena and Cesena.
• Both Teams Not To Score 1st Half: Conversely, a 69% figure implies a strong possibility of a first-half clean sheet for one team, indicating that BTTS is more likely post-interval.
• Both Teams Not To Score 2nd Half: 75% likelihood indicates a high possibility of only one team, or possibly neither, scoring after halftime.

Team-Specific Scoring Insights

• Home Team To Score 1st Half: This stands at 56%, providing slight value for Modena to get off the mark early.
• Home Team To Score 2nd Half: 67% chance could signal yet more promise for Modena after the break.
• Away Team To Score 2nd Half: Cesena have a 56% probability of scoring post-interval, while their chance of not scoring in the first half sits at 61%.

Card Betting

• Over 4.5 Cards: At 69%, there’s a strong tendency toward a feisty contest, likely pushing the card count above average.
• Under 5.5 Cards: Still at 61%, reflecting that although the match could get heated, it might not spiral out of control.
• Yellow/Red Cards: Average yellow cards per match is 2.44 and reds are rare at 0.06 per match, reinforcing a lean toward higher-than-average but not extreme bookings.

Expert Overview & Predictions

• Balanced Contest: The statistical likelihoods highlight a match finely balanced between a closely contested draw or a narrow win for either side, with Modena slightly favored to find the net in both halves.
• Cautious Value on BTTS First Half – ‘No’: Given the high probability of at least one clean sheet in the opening 45 minutes, BTTS ‘No’ in the first half is an attractive pick.
• Card Betting Edge: Over 4.5 cards stands out as a reliable angle given the teams’ discipline records and the importance of the fixture.
• Best Statistical Bets: Over 1.5 goals (78%), Over 0.5 1st Half goals (78%), and Over 4.5 cards (69%).
• Leaning Markets: Consider Modena to score in the 2nd half (67%) or Cesena to not score in the 1st half (61%) as reasonable supports for team-specific outcome multiples or in-play selections.