Sassuolo vs Frosinone – Betting Analysis

General Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs Frosinone

The Serie A fixture between Sassuolo and Frosinone scheduled for 2025-05-13 at 18:30 presents an intriguing contest with moderate attacking potential and a disciplined record in bookings. The statistical profile shows an average total goals expectation of 2.69 per match, with both teams showing consistency in scoring, but also a trend towards defensive solidity, especially in the first half. Despite Sassuolo being favorites to win, the data suggests opportunities for nuanced betting based on scoring timings and card discipline.

Goals Betting Insights

• Over 1.5 Goals: Probability of 78%. The match is statistically likely to feature at least two goals, aligning with the average total goals (2.69) per game for these teams.
• Under 2.5 Goals: 58% probability. While over 1.5 goals is likely, there’s still a notable chance the match stays under three goals, indicating expectations of a controlled attacking display.
• Sum of Goals 2 or 3: 56%. This outcome fits the teams’ scoring averages and suggests a mid-range goal tally.
• Avg. Goals Scored: 1.61; Avg. Conceded: 1.08. These figures reinforce the projections for a balanced encounter with a slight home team offensive edge.
• Over 0.5 Goals (HT): 69% chance of at least one goal before halftime, reflecting a moderate but not overwhelming first-half threat.
• First Goal 30+ Minutes: 56%. There’s a strong possibility the deadlock could be broken after the first half-hour, hinting at cautious early approaches.
• Last Goal Minute 0-72: 53%. Most likely, the decisive action occurs within the first 72 minutes.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) & Team Scoring Insights

• Both Teams to Score: At 53%, BTTS is marginal, suggesting the likelihood of one side failing to find the net, especially considering the first and second-half splits.
• BTTS Not in 1st Half: 86%. A strong signal that the opening period is unlikely to see goals from both sides, emphasizing the pragmatic starts and defensive focus early on.
• BTTS Not in 2nd Half: 81%. Again, supports the view that if one team leads, late equalizers are relatively rare.

Home and Away Team-Specific Betting

• Home Team To Score 1st Half: 67%; 2nd Half: 78%. Sassuolo are especially likely to find the net after halftime, making second-half “home team to score” a standout play.
• Home Team to Win: 61%. Sassuolo are favorites, with a solid chance to secure three points.
• Away Team Not To Score 1st Half: 78%. Frosinone’s slow starts are well captured here.
• Away Team to Score 2nd Half: 53%. Frosinone’s threat increases as the game opens up, so late goals from the visitors are possible but not guaranteed.

Cards Betting Analysis

• Under 4.5 Cards: 64% probability.
• Under 5.5 Cards: 72%. The match is projected to see minimal bookings, with an average of just 1.83 yellow cards and 0.09 red cards per game, suggesting few disciplinary incidents and a smooth-flowing game.

Expert Predictions

• The data profile highlights Sassuolo’s propensity to score in the second half and maintain composure. Their status as favorites is supported by attacking stats and Frosinone’s sluggish starts.
• The most attractive angles for bettors are “Both teams not to score in 1st half,” “Home team to score in 2nd half,” and “Under 5.5 cards,” given their high probabilities and statistical backing.
• The odds point towards a low-tempered, tactically careful first half with more open play and attacking in the second, where Sassuolo’s quality may check the result.

Final Score Prediction: Sassuolo 2 – 0 Frosinone.
This outcome leverages the high likelihood of a home win, a second-half Sassuolo goal, and Frosinone’s limited first-half attacking threat.