Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin – Betting Analysis

Expert Overview: Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin

The match-up between Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin, scheduled for May 14, 2025, at 18:30, promises a tactical contest with modest volatility. Statistical trends point towards a low card count, with fewer than 3 yellow cards and almost negligible risk of a red card. Both teams demonstrate an inclination towards solid but not excessively aggressive play, resulting in a balanced average of 2.93 total goals per match. Home and away scoring patterns suggest tactical caution early in both halves, rising attacking intent after halftime, and a strong possibility for decisive moments after the 73rd minute.

Betting Insights by Category

Cards Market

• Under 5.5 Cards: 77% | Under 4.5 Cards: 60%
  The game is expected to be disciplined, with a strong statistical trend towards fewer than five cards overall. Bettors might prefer the ‘unders’ on cards, given the consistently low average of yellow (2.00 per match) and a miniscule red card rate (0.07).

Goals Market

• Over 0.5 Goals HT: 73% | Over 1.5 Goals: 67% | Over 2.5 Goals: 53%
  There is a healthy expectation of goalmouth action. With an average of almost 3 goals per match across recent fixtures, ‘over’ goals bets—especially at the 0.5 and 1.5 thresholds—are well supported. ‘Over 2.5’ is slightly less assured but above 50% probability.
• Both Teams Not To Score: 60%
  The likelihood is leaning towards at least one team failing to find the net. Cautious opening halves and structured defending are key trends.
• Both Teams Not To Score In 1st Half: 77% | 2nd Half: 77%
  An even higher chance exists that at least one side draws a blank in both halves. This further supports ‘Both Teams to Score: NO’ markets and low-risk first-half bets.
• Avg. Goals Scored: 1.64 | Avg. Conceded: 1.30
  Defensive focus is slightly stronger than attacking potency, supporting the moderate projections in goal outcomes.

Team-Specific Scoring

• Home Team To Score In 2nd Half: 73% | In 1st Half: 60%
  Pogon Szczecin is notably more likely to score after halftime. Their offensive output accelerates later, making 2nd half home goals a strong market.
• Away Team To Score In 2nd Half: 53% | In 1st Half: 53%
  Motor Lublin appears slightly less reliable, but still presents an even chance to score especially in the latter stages.
• Last Goal 73+ Minutes: 53%
  Over half of matches see decisive late drama, making an in-play bet on ‘Last Goal After 73:00’ an intriguing option if the match remains close.

Match Outcome Prediction

• Home Team To Win: 60%
  Pogon Szczecin is statistically favored, backed by stronger home performance metrics and a higher likelihood to score across both halves.

Additional Expert Predictions

• Low card count expected—favorable for ‘Under X.5 Cards’ markets.
• Early caution suggested; fewer goals likely in the first half, with action intensifying post-halftime.
• Home side’s scoring surge in the second half may be decisive.
• In-play opportunities: look for potential late goals (73+ min) if game is level or tight.
• ‘Both Teams to Score: No’ and ‘Home Win’ are attractive main markets based on pre-match data.