Football Under 4.5 Cards Betting: Daily Match Analysis, Stats, and Strategies
Betting on “Under 4.5 cards” in football matches is rapidly gaining traction among punters seeking value and reduced volatility in sports wagering. This market focuses on predicting whether a match will see fewer than five yellow or red cards in total, blending statistical insight, tactical analysis, and bookmaker trends for consistently strong results.
Under 4.5 Cards predictions for 2025-06-28
Argentina
Federal A Zona D
- 18:30 Crucero Del Norte vs Sarmiento de Resistencia -Under 4.5 Cards: 63.60%
Japan
J. League
- 10:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe -Under 4.5 Cards: 83.10%
- 10:00 FC Tokyo vs Yokohama FC -Under 4.5 Cards: 66.80%
- 09:00 Kashima Antlers vs Fagiano Okayama -Under 4.5 Cards: 88.10%
- 10:00 Kyoto Sanga FC vs Gamba Osaka -Under 4.5 Cards: 76.10%
- 10:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Eight -Under 4.5 Cards: 96.70%
- 09:30 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol -Under 4.5 Cards: 82.90%
- 10:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Yokohama F.Marinos -Under 4.5 Cards: 76.20%
J. League 2
- 10:00 Fujieda MYFC vs Imabari -Under 4.5 Cards: 67.50%
- 05:00 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Roasso Kumamoto -Under 4.5 Cards: 65.00%
- 10:30 Jubilo Iwata vs Vegalta Sendai -Under 4.5 Cards: 74.20%
- 09:00 Kataller Toyama vs JEF United Chiba -Under 4.5 Cards: 86.20%
- 09:00 Mito Hollyhock vs Tokushima Vortis -Under 4.5 Cards: 68.80%
- 10:00 Montedio Yamagata vs V-Varen Nagasaki -Under 4.5 Cards: 66.60%
- 10:00 Oita Trinita vs Omiya Ardija -Under 4.5 Cards: 63.40%
- 10:00 Renofa Yamaguchi vs Blaublitz Akita -Under 4.5 Cards: 70.20%
- 10:00 Sagan Tosu vs Iwaki SC -Under 4.5 Cards: 70.50%
- 09:30 Ventforet Kofu vs Ehime FC -Under 4.5 Cards: 72.40%
Korea Republic
K-League
- 10:00 Anyang vs Gwangju FC -Under 4.5 Cards: 64.50%
- 10:00 Suwon FC vs Gangwon FC -Under 4.5 Cards: 85.80%
Norway
1. Division
- 12:00 Kongsvinger vs Raufoss -Under 4.5 Cards: 83.60%
- 14:00 Lillestrom vs Sogndal -Under 4.5 Cards: 63.40%
- 14:00 Moss vs Egersund -Under 4.5 Cards: 74.40%
- 14:00 Odd BK vs Start -Under 4.5 Cards: 90.90%
- 14:00 Skeid vs Aalesund -Under 4.5 Cards: 78.10%
- 14:00 Stabaek vs Ranheim -Under 4.5 Cards: 90.20%
Eliteserien
- 16:00 Rosenborg vs Viking -Under 4.5 Cards: 81.60%
Sweden
Allsvenskan
- 13:00 Hammarby IF vs Halmstad -Under 4.5 Cards: 84.30%
- 15:30 Osters IF vs Sirius -Under 4.5 Cards: 72.30%
Superettan
- 13:00 GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK -Under 4.5 Cards: 68.30%
- 11:00 Orgryte vs Helsingborg IF -Under 4.5 Cards: 74.60%
- 13:00 Trelleborgs FF vs Oddevold -Under 4.5 Cards: 77.50%
- 11:00 Vasteras SK vs Landskrona BoIS -Under 4.5 Cards: 66.50%
USA
Major League Soccer
- 23:30 New York Red Bulls vs Minnesota United -Under 4.5 Cards: 59.00%
- 23:30 Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati -Under 4.5 Cards: 83.00%
- 23:30 Toronto FC vs Portland Timbers -Under 4.5 Cards: 58.20%
Uruguay
Primera Division Intermedio Group B
- 23:00 Boston River vs Miramar Misiones -Under 4.5 Cards: 67.00%
Understanding the Under 4.5 Cards Market
The Under 4.5 cards market is based on total disciplinary actions: yellow (1 card) and red cards (2 cards; some bookies count it as one, some as two). To win, the match must finish with four or fewer cards shown by the referee, regardless of which teams or players are involved. This bet is settled on the regular 90 minutes unless specified otherwise by the bookmaker.
- Yellow Card: 1 card
- Red Card: 2 cards (Check bookmaker rules)
- Time Frame: Usually 90 minutes plus injury time (no extra time)
Latest Daily Under 4.5 Cards Match Updates
| Date | Match | Referee | Cards Issued | Result | Bookie Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-17 | Denmark vs Slovenia | Daniele Orsato | 3 Yellows | Under 4.5 Cards: ✅ | 1.68 |
| 2024-06-16 | England vs Serbia | Daniele Makkelie | 2 Yellows, 1 Red | Under 4.5 Cards: ✅ | 1.85 |
| 2024-06-15 | Switzerland vs Hungary | Vinicius Dias | 3 Yellows | Under 4.5 Cards: ✅ | 1.75 |
These results underline a trend: major tournaments often start “clean” as referees encourage fair play under greater scrutiny. Track referee assignments and tournament phases for best value.
Key Stats and Patterns for Under 4.5 Cards Betting
- Premier League (2023/24): Average 3.65 cards per game. 62% of matches finished under 4.5 cards.
- UEFA Euro 2024 (so far): 74% matches under 4.5 cards in the group stage.
- Spanish La Liga: Tends toward higher card counts: Under 4.5 in ~54% of fixtures.
Certain competitions have more lenient refereeing or fewer tactical fouls (European competitions, English top-flight, international tournaments) while others, like South American or Balkan leagues, may see more aggressive play and higher card totals.
Factors Impacting Under 4.5 Cards Outcomes
- Referee Profile: Some favor “letting the game flow,” others are stricter with discipline. Check their season averages for card issuance.
- Match Importance: Knockout matches or derbies often see heightened tension and more fouls.
- Tactical Approaches: Possession-based, disciplined teams (e.g., Spain, Manchester City) tend to earn fewer cards; direct, physical sides (e.g., Stoke, Atletico) attract more bookings.
- Weather and Pitch Conditions: Poor conditions may lead to more late tackles and cards.
- Player Suspensions: Teams missing key midfielders or defenders may be forced into tactical fouling.
Smart Betting Strategies for Under 4.5 Cards
- Research Referees: Prioritize games officiated by refs with a low card average (below 4.0). Use stats from WhoScored, Soccerway, or Transfermarkt.
- Assess Team Discipline: Rank teams by their disciplinary record. Sides with lowest bookings per game are best for this market.
- Filter by League and Match Context: Prioritize international group stages, early-round English league matches, and fixtures without local rivalry history.
- Watch For Late-Season Trends: Safe or mid-table teams often play less aggressively, reducing card risk.
- Pair Markets: Use Under 4.5 Cards alongside Bet Builder combos (e.g., Under 4.5 Goals + Under 4.5 Cards) for enhanced odds.
Real-World Example: Applying the Strategy
Example: For the England vs. Serbia match at Euro 2024, the referee was Daniele Makkelie, who averages 3.44 cards in UEFA competitions. Both teams play possession-focused, cautious football. No direct rivalry or knock-out tension—offering value at 1.85 for under 4.5 cards. The final tally was 2 yellow cards and 1 red (bookmaker rule: one card), resulting in bet success.
Conclusion: Is Under 4.5 Cards a Profitable Market?
The under 4.5 cards market can be one of the most statistically predictable and rewarding football bet types—if approached with discipline and data-driven research. By staying up-to-date with referee appointments, match context, and historical stats, shrewd bettors can maximize profit and minimize risk. Make sure to check each bookmaker’s rules for card counting and consistently track league-specific trends for best results.
