Ballon d’Or 2024 Power Rankings

With the conclusion of the 2023-24 European season, the Copa America, and Euro 2024, the stage is set for predicting the next Ballon d’Or winner. Real Madrid, Spain, and Argentina emerged victorious in the biggest tournaments, putting their star players in contention for football’s most prestigious individual award.

Based on the performances and achievements during the eligibility period, we’ve compiled a top 10 power rankings of the players most likely to lift the Ballon d’Or at the glamorous Paris ceremony in late October.

Kylian Mbappe

Let’s make this clear from the start: Kylian Mbappe will not be lifting his first Ballon d’Or later this year, barring an extraordinary turnaround in his early days at Real Madrid.

Regarded by many as the best player in the world, Mbappe’s reputation certainly works in his favor. Now officially a Madrid player, having the support of Florentino Perez and much of the Spanish media will also boost his chances when voting begins. However, for Los Blancos’ latest Galactico, the decisive matches are behind him, and unfortunately, they didn’t go his way.

“In football, you’re either good or not good. I wasn’t good. My Euro was a failure,” he admitted following France’s semi-final defeat to Spain.

“I wanted to be European champion. I will now go on holiday, I will rest well, it will do me a lot of good, then I will get ready to start a new life. There’s a lot to do.”

This is a healthy attitude. We would make him the massive favorite for the 2025 Ballon d’Or following his debut season at the Bernabeu. Watch this space.

Lamine Yamal

Yamal’s assist for Nico Williams’ opener against England was his fourth of the tournament, making him the player with the most assists at Euro 2024 and tying the all-time European Championships record for assists in a single tournament. Then there’s that incredible goal against France.

In all honesty, we don’t expect to see Yamal competing for this year’s Ballon d’Or. However, he was deservedly named Euro 2024’s Young Player of the Tournament and is a strong favorite for the Golden Boy award.

If this remarkable trajectory continues, he might well compete for the top award in the future.

Dani Carvajal

That said, it’s hard to imagine a right-back doing much more than Carvajal has. He scored the decisive first goal in the Champions League final and provided vital experience to help Spain win their first major international honor in years.

Winning both European titles with club and country in the same year is a rare feat. Carvajal should be a shoo-in for any Team of the Year XI.

Harry Kane

Legends like Messi, Cristiano, Benzema, and Ronaldo Nazario have all followed up winning the European Golden Shoe with the Ballon d’Or.

Kane earned that accolade for the first time in his career, but his trophy drought continues following Bayern’s Champions League semi-final defeat to Real Madrid and England’s heartbreaking Euro 2024 loss to Spain.

Toni Kroos

We considered the possibility of a ‘lifetime achievement’ factor playing in Kroos’ favor, similar to Modric in 2018, Martin Scorsese winning Best Director for The Departed, or Ryan Giggs being named Premier League Player of the Year.

There seemed to be a sense of destiny as Kroos concluded his club career with yet another Champions League triumph. We could envision his farewell culminating perfectly with him finally claiming the one trophy that had eluded him: the European Championship, especially on home turf. Kroos was outstanding at Euro 2024, but unfortunately, Germany fell short against a superb Spain in the quarterfinals.

Lautaro Martinez

“At the end of the season, I believe I’m on par with Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Robert Lewandowski,” Martinez confidently declared.

“I have nothing to envy them in terms of numbers and trophies. Some champions have fewer trophies than me.”

Martinez should be feeling bullish after his best-ever season—he claimed Serie A’s Capocannoniere with 24 goals, leading Inter to the Scudetto. However, Inter’s disappointing Champions League run, including Martinez’s missed penalty in the shootout loss to Atletico Madrid, likely dashed any faint hopes of the Ballon d’Or.

While Lionel Scaloni favored Julian Alvarez’s workrate and link-up play at the Copa America, Martinez made a monumental impact off the bench. He finished as the Copa America’s Golden Boot winner with five goals, scoring the decisive goal in the final against Colombia. It was a spectacular way to cap off a brilliant year.

Lionel Messi

It’s important to highlight that Messi secured his seventh Ballon d’Or after leading Argentina to Copa America glory in 2021. Now, in 2024, he has repeated this feat, making Argentina only the second national team in football history (after Spain) to sandwich the World Cup with consecutive continental titles.

In 2021, Messi was still playing at the highest European level with Barcelona and PSG. Now with Inter Miami, while enjoying his time, any accomplishments in MLS are unlikely to carry weight in Ballon d’Or considerations (similar to Ronaldo at Al Nassr). The landscape of elite football is still evolving significantly for this to change. Nonetheless, Messi continues to defy age like fine wine. A spot on the podium is possible, and he’s likely to be the top-ranked player in a Ballon d’Or vote that has encompassed the entire eligibility period outside of Europe.

Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham, despite a remarkable debut season at Real Madrid, faces comparisons not seen since Alfredo di Stefano. For a club renowned for its Galactico signings like Cristiano Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane, and Luis Figo, his impact has been exceptional.

Finishing as Los Blancos’ top scorer, he matched Barcelona’s main striker Robert Lewandowski in goals and earned La Liga’s Player of the Year award. His defining moments included injury-time winners in Clasicos, a feat unmatched by Messi or Ronaldo.

However, his performances in crucial Champions League knockouts and England’s major fixtures were less stellar, though he did assist Vinicius Junior in the final. Despite not being hailed as the world’s best player by regular viewers, his near miss with a European double could have secured England’s first Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001.

Vinicius Junior

Vinicius Junior shone brightly in the latter stages of the Champions League, notably scoring in the final and delivering standout performances against Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund.

As Madrid secured a La Liga and Champions League double, Vinicius emerged as their most potent attacking threat in the spring. This often proves pivotal in Ballon d’Or races, reminiscent of years dominated by Messi, Ronaldo, and Benzema.

In a different year, Vinicius might already be the frontrunner for the Ballon d’Or. However, this summer’s tournaments could impact his chances, especially considering his suspension during Brazil’s Copa America quarter-final exit against Uruguay.

While he showcased his talent with two goals against Paraguay, Vinicius also faced criticism for underwhelming performances and unnecessary bookings in group-stage matches against Colombia and Costa Rica. His absence in the knockout stages was keenly felt by Brazil.

 Rodri

Jan Verthongen tweeted, “Rodri Ballon d’Or confirmed,” following Spain’s victory over England in the Euro 2024 final.

However, it’s far from confirmed, Jan. This year’s major awards are widely distributed, leaving the race open. Vinicius Junior remains the favorite among bookmakers, overshadowing Rodri, who as a defensive midfielder may struggle against flashier forwards in the Ballon d’Or race. “I don’t play football for Ballon d’Or recognition,” Rodri recently told The Guardian.

“Maybe people expect me to be more marketable, and Alvaro [Morata] sometimes jokes, ‘Mate, you should…’ but I have a different understanding of football. I know how it works, so I’m not frustrated if I’m overlooked. If someday someone wants to recognize the work, that’s welcome, but it doesn’t bother me at all.”

Let’s acknowledge his immense talent. Rodri is arguably one of the world’s best players. With his commanding presence in midfield, both Manchester City and Spain consistently control games, setting the tempo and dominating their opponents.

How many players worldwide can boast such influence on the field?

An injury in the Euro 2024 final denied him a fitting end to a remarkable year, where he suffered just one defeat across club and international competitions. Rodri rightfully earned the Player of the Tournament award, orchestrating Spain’s exceptional campaign where they won all seven matches, including victories over hosts Germany and favorites France and England on their way to lifting the trophy.